ENERGY AND COMMODITY ANALYSIS
POWER MARKET ANALYSIS
Filsinger Energy Partners has taken market modeling to a new frontier. Models are only as good as the insights and information that go into them. Most databases that feed market models are based on readily available, mass-consumption information. FEP’s proprietary technologies on the other hand, are developed from our market insights and are based on data that we scrub to the smallest detail. We analyze and research market and regulatory details to enhance the data with our personal insights and industry experience. When FEP conducts your analysis, you get more than a software-generated chart. You get our deep market insights and knowledge.
Our Inputs: We supplement our database with our own diligence and algorithms, filling in the gaps and improving the quality of the data. The result is a more complete dataset, backed by FEP’s research and expertise.
Our Process: Our proprietary models supplement the third-party software recognized throughout the industry to provide deeper insights and more trustworthy outcomes. Further, we developed our models to capture the complex, nuanced functions of the markets that are not adequately represented by off-the-shelf software.
The Result: Models that more accurately represent reality and the risks that you may face.
For Example: Market Cyclicality
Energy markets have historically demonstrated a cyclical nature, much like other capital-intensive sectors. To capture this cyclicality, FEP’s models apply a proprietary business cycle methodology to the capacity compensation projection. This business cycle concept reflects the natural succession of cyclical periods of overbuilding followed by recovery periods as the market responds to economic signals.
NODAL MARKET MODELING
Filsinger Energy Partners utilizes its unmatched industry expertise and proprietary modeling technologies to capture, evaluate and explain the complex nuances of the local electric grid.
Local transmission system congestion and pricing dynamics are critical considerations in evaluating generation and transmission projects. With transmission constraints, reliability issues and new generation development all impacting a project’s local grid, the nodal pricing outlook is a key component of investment decisions.
In addition to our regional and zonal power market pricing and dispatch analysis, FEP has deployed our proprietary and highly-detailed database of generation and transmission assets in support of nodal market analysis.
With improved granularity, our nodal models produce locational marginal prices (LMPs) at specific locations on the electric grid. This extra level of locational precision allows FEP to provide enhanced insight into the hourly dynamics of the grid. Additionally, by utilizing a consistent database of grid characteristics, FEP can produce reliable market analyses, regardless of the scale and scope of the analysis.
The professionals at Filsinger Energy Partners have experience in the renewable energy sector, providing everything from market impact assessments to regulatory and financial analysis, including the following:
Renewable Portfolio Standards: We have helped utilities and financial participants to forecast the impact of the renewable buildouts on their existing generation portfolios, including assessment of reliability concerns and market pricing impacts.
Net Metering: The rapid growth of distributed generation and residential solar energy usage has furthered the challenges in the energy marketplace. FEP professionals have advised utilities with financial projections, load forecasting, rate case analysis, and more. We also help municipalities grapple with the dual goals of increased renewable energy availability while also assuring reliability.
Renewable Technology Costs: Falling capital costs and continuing tax incentives for renewable technologies have brought the economic balance between renewables and fossil generation closer to parity. FEP professionals have experience evaluating and forecasting renewable technology costs to help you better plan for the future.
Facility Maintenance Outlooks: As the wind and solar fleet ages, there is uncertainty regarding the maintenance and capital that will be required. FEP can assist you with managing these risks while making actionable forecasts of future impacts.
Renewable Energy Credits: FEP has analyzed REC pricing and structures in all of the U.S. markets, and we understand the impacts that regulatory actions will have on future development.
FEP is uniquely positioned to help developers and lenders with technical and financial due diligence to support financing.
Filsinger Energy Partners has experience in the geothermal industry, including decline curve forecasting, power market analysis, interim management, restructuring, and evaluation of emerging technologies.
Geothermal energy continues to be a significant player in our nation’s renewable energy portfolio thanks to new technologies and better development of the vast resources available. Companies that participate in this industry need partners who not only understand the business and technology of geothermal resources, extraction, and conversion to power, but who also possess insights into the nation’s overall power market.
Additionally, geothermal energy companies need partners who can help navigate the promising new synergies developing with the oil and gas industry. Filsinger Energy Partners can help you take advantage of the many opportunities facing the geothermal industry today while managing your risk to achieve efficiency. For geothermal assets that are financially challenged, especially those facing unexpected resource declines, we can help bridge the financial gap between investment and long-term expectations through financial and operational expertise.
There remain significant undeveloped geothermal resources across the United States. Filsinger Energy Partners understands the benefits, risks, and challenges of geothermal energy and can help you tap into this singular opportunity.
OIL AND GAS
The commodities of crude oil and natural gas have historically exhibited high levels of price volatility. This price volatility creates a natural ebb and flow of business cycles as high commodity prices accelerate exploration, drilling rig deployment, the number of well completions, the demand for gathering systems and pipelines, financing capital and higher economically recoverable reserve levels.
Alternatively, low commodity prices significantly dampen exploration, drilling rigs are stacked in yards generating no revenue, service companies experience financial distress, pipelines are rationalized, economically recoverable reserve levels decrease, and the probability of financial distress in all sectors of the industry increases.
The seasoned professionals at Filsinger Energy Partners have hands-on experience with these complexities, including exploration and production companies, drilling contractors, well service companies, commodity gathering, and transportation entities, financing these capital-intensive activities, or the financial reporting of results and reserve levels.
LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS
Filsinger Energy Partners understands the entire liquefied natural gas lifecycle as well as the related economics to help clients prepare for the potential impacts of this emerging opportunity. Horizontal drilling and fracking have revolutionized the energy landscape. With an abundance of cheap natural gas, companies have begun to focus on the opportunities and challenges that a growing liquefied natural gas (LNG) export market may bring.
With today’s natural gas prices, companies are scrambling to exploit the tremendous opportunities created by price spreads between the United States and the rest of the world. As our export facilities continue in various stages of development, how will the domestic and international economics change?
Filsinger Energy Partners has evaluated the LNG lifecycle, including the economics of each stage of production, transportation, and delivery. We help clients determine whether margins will remain strong as the marketplace evolves, or whether developing exports will put pressure on domestic natural gas pricing.
FEP understands the market dynamics and players to help evaluate and forecast the impacts.
The United States is the world’s largest producer of ethanol and, as the industry continues to develop, ethanol manufacturers face continuous, complex change in the marketplace. Ethanol facilities are rife with risks and are challenging to operate, both technically and fiscally. Managing crush spreads in the face of highly volatile commodity markets requires keen insights into the industry, the competition, the plant’s capabilities, and the future. FEP helps its clients to manage risk as we also enable them to improve plant and trading efficiency.
The professionals at Filsinger Energy Partners have served in senior management roles and have managed ethanol facility operations, including:
Ethanol crush spreads from corn and other advanced feedstocks
Conventional, advanced and cellulosic ethanol operations, including conversion analysis
Transport agreements in constrained environments
Renewable Identification Number (RIN) trading programs
Environmental Protection Agency regulations
Complex and sensitive relationships with farmers and local citizens